An Assessment of QEC Forecasts 1984-94. Quarterly Economic Commentary Special Article, Autumn 1995

Baker, T.J. and Duggan, Delma (1995) An Assessment of QEC Forecasts 1984-94. Quarterly Economic Commentary Special Article, Autumn 1995. [Working Paper]

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Abstract

All regular economic forecasters should carry out periodic assessments of the accuracy of their forecasts. These are not normally for publication, but rather to assure themselves that there are no systematic biases in their work and to identify avoidable weaknesses in their forecasting approach. In an ideal world, published assessments of the forecasting record over a suitable period should be undertaken by a disinterested third party, preferably including a comparative study of forecasts from different sources. In the real world, third parties have proved uninterested rather than disinterested, leaving the individual forecaster to decide whether to publish his or her own assessments.

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