The Updating of Certain Econometric Models. Quarterly Economic Commentary, September 1970

Baker, Terence J. and Durkan, J. (1970) The Updating of Certain Econometric Models. Quarterly Economic Commentary, September 1970. [Working Paper]

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Abstract

The editors of the Quarterly Ec:onomic Commentary make use of a variety of econometric models, developed in the past by the Institute, as a guide to forecasting. Such models indicate the implications of different assumptions about the course of the economy, the impact on the economy of extrapolated trends, and the consistency of the forecasts of the National Accounts components made in Section 2.2, both with themselves and with the experience embodied in the models. Following normal practice in the use of working models, it was decided to re-run the equations using the latest figures, and where possible to attempt an improvement in the models. Updating the models not only keeps them relevant to current conditions, but also serves as a check on the stability over time of the implied relationships.

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