EUSA Conference Austin March 30 – April 2, 2005 "Inter-organizational Sparring in the EU's Informal Sphere: the Case of CFSP" Dr. Jeffrey Stacey Political Science Dept. Tulane University jstacey@tulane.edu (504) 862-8323 Note: Feel free to quote the contents as long as you are sure to inform me – thank you. Introduction Analysis of the dynamics of informal governance in the European Union (EU) has established a toehold in the scholarly attempt to map the regional integration phenomenon; just beyond the fin du siècle, the attempt amounts to a cross-Atlantic endeavor with much ground to cover. Yet it is an auspicious trek, for mainstream regionalism scholarship has been marching in distinctly different directions for years, even decades. Since the early days of what has become the EU, memorably mapped out by boundary-breaking cartographers like Ernst Hass and Leon Lindberg, regionalism scholarship of the non-Regional Trade Agreement (RTA) variety has trained its sites almost exclusively on the formal sphere of European integration—viz. entities based on full-fledged legal rules which regulate EU governance and are subject to external judicial review. While these and many ensuing mappings of the EU's formal sphere have proved highly necessary and often insightful, European integration scholarship has virtually ignored a more obscure if no less important piece of territory: the EU's informal sphere. Leaving the informal sphere as uncharted scholarly territory, however, has come at a cost. Indeed, scholars who confine their territorial mapping exclusively to the EU's formal sphere may not avoid the fate of the six blind men of Indostan, who were each partially accurate in their description of the elephant although tellingly inaccurate when it came to understanding the whole nature of the beast. Those scholars engaged in charting the EU's informal sphere may yet save the regionalism sub-field from a similarly blind fate. In doing so they have the potential to substantially deepen our understanding of the world's most prominent political experiment to date, for the quotidian outcomes of EU governance may not be fully comprehended without an understanding of the recursive relationship between the EU's formal and informal rules (the latter of which tend to be as consistently adhered to by EU actors as the former). This paper seeks to aid in this endeavor. It will do so firstly by anchoring the later empirical sections in the theory of rational choice historical institutionalism (RCHI), a necessary grounding that attempts to avoid a somewhat common trend of regionalist scholarship—viz. describing empirically without explaining theoretically. This theoretical hybrid of two of new institutionalism's three variants seeks to compensate for the individual weaknesses of RCI (rational choice institutionalism) and HI (historical institutionalism) while accentuating their strengths. In essence, RCHI theory is based on rationalist assumptions but takes account of the increasing returns of political phenomena. Secondly, the paper will attempt to subject RCHI's hypotheses to the evolving political powers of the EU's new foreign policy czar, officially known as the Common Foreign and Security Policy's (CFSP) High Representative (HR). Former Spanish foreign minister Javier Solana, the EU's first HR, has now had several years to begin defining the role of the HR, in the course of which he and the Council have agreed to a number of new informal rules regarding the HR's relationship with the Parliament. The Parliament, naturally, has sought to augment its authority in the process (the degree to which will be explored below). Thus, this paper will examine internal informal dynamics in an area of the EU that has yet to be explored, at least, from the standpoint of new institutionalist theory. RCHI Theory Ahead of hammering out the theoretical framework, it is necessary to address some foundational conceptual issues. With regard to institutions and institutionalism it is important to emphasize a distinction too rarely made in regionalism scholarship, particularly in studies of the EU: between organizations and institutions. Inside the EU and throughout the media, the Council, Commission, and Parliament—a.k.a. the Three—are referred to as "institutions." Technically speaking, however, they are organizations. Courts, legislatures, and bureaucratic agencies are examples of organizations. Organizations constitute collective political actors, whereas institutions constitute rules—as opposed to actors. Following definitions by North and Eggertsson, an institution comprises either a single or complex set of rules which govern the interaction of political actors, i.e. guiding principles which both prescribe and proscribe behavior and are set out in the form of prescriptions – either formally established or tacitly understood. Institutions constrain actors; they are not actors themselves; their purpose is to solve social problems, which they accomplish via providing incentives or disincentives for action. Formal institutions are conscious creations of political actors and strictly enforceable, while informal institutions – not synonymous with norms – are sometimes intended and sometimes the result of unintended patterns that accrue over time on the basis of repeated interactions. The key distinction between informal and formal institutions is that, unlike the latter, the parties to informal institutions are not legally bound to their rules; in terms of enforcement, aggrieved parties can only rely on political sanctions that carry negligible legal force. In contrast, the rules of formal institutions are legally enforceable by a third party judicial body – in the EU the ECJ – which possesses the authority to issue binding legal sanctions. Intended informal institutions appear in two forms (informal accords comprise at least a single rule/institution and are created by more than one actor, whereas informal precepts are created by a single actor); their unintended counterparts are properly designated as informal conventions. Also found among informal institutions are norms (rule-based standards of appropriateness: like the others they are rule-based, but also morality-based; and they can be intentional or unintentional). Whereas accords, precepts, and conventions are functional siblings, norms are more akin to cousins—though still in the same institutional family. Because institutions affect policy outcomes – and policy-making powers – actors not only have preferences over institutions, but also compete to bring about their preferred versions of them. Institutional innovation, therefore, is tantamount either to the creation of new rules or making changes in existing rules. Consequently, change in the EU's institutional milieu has the potential to reallocate power among the Three, rendering each more or less able to achieve its own policy preferences. Consequential institutional creation occurs not only in the EU's formal sphere, but also its informal sphere. Informal rule creation by the EU's primary organizational actors connotes a tension between prescription and convention in the EU, i.e. a disparity between what is supposed to happen according to law – formal (de jure) dynamics – and what actually happens in practice – informal (de facto) dynamics. Sometimes serving to reinforce to the formal sphere, at other times to modify it, the rule-encompassing political bargains that underpin informal accords constitute the crux of the EU's "informal inter-organizational dynamics"—a subset of the larger domain of informal governance. Informal governance has been defined by Christiansen et al. in the following manner: "We define governance as the production of authoritative decisions which are not produced by a single hierarchical structure, such as a democratically elected legislative assembly and government, but instead arise from the interaction of a plethora of public and private, collective and individual actors … Governance is informal when participation in the decision-making process is not yet or cannot be codified and publicly enforced." Whereas van Tatenhove and Mak define it as "those non-codified settings of day-to-day interaction concerning policy issues, in which the participation of actors, the formation of coalitions, the processes of agenda-setting and (preliminary) decision-making are not structured by pre-given sets of rules or formal institutions. This definition of informal practices emphasizes the 'rules of the game' and the specific way rules guide and constrain the behavior of actors in the interplay of formal and informal practices." These definitions are most useful: Christiansen et al. successfully demarcate the terrain of network-based informal governance, while van Tatenhove and Mak incorporate this swath of terrain and trek further in the direction of rule-based informal governance. Yet, neither definition adequately charts an additional swath of territory, viz. explicit rule creation in the context of rule-based informal governance—partly because of the need to view governance more expansively as a process by which actors (governmental and non-governmental) and rules (formal and informal) interact to steer political behavior and outcomes in society. Nonetheless, there appears to be a way to bridge the Christiansen et al. approach of network-based informal governance that does not occur according to any prescribed or already established rules, with the Stacey and Rittberger approach of rule-based informal governance that maintains there are numerous informal rules in the EU, some consequential even to the point of being adhered to by actors when they clash with formal treaty-based rules. Such a bridge would need to incorporate both codified and non-codified settings. In this vein, informal governance is engaged in by actors who are either making decisions/policies or altering the rules of policy-making; furthermore, informal governance either sets precedents or it does not. The above definitions capture informal governance that does not set precedents in the form of new rules/institutions; however, they are unable to capture the informal dynamics that actively create new rules, which remain in effect for future political interactions. Thus, a potentially useful addition to the van Tatenhove and Mak mimeo may be the process of creating informal rules – informal dynamics – that often have a recursive relationship with formal rules. Perhaps it would be useful to conceive of informal governance either in terms of two variants or as an additional axis, viz. precedent setting and non-precedent setting informal governance. An important research question is whether informal governance – in either informal dynamics or policy network form – actually contributes to further integration or not, i.e. transfers of sovereignty. If evidence can be found that informal governance contributes to an integration outcome – i.e. explain a portion of its variance – then such would constitute interregnum integration. As opposed to history-making integration – transferring sovereignty from the national level to supranational actors – interregnum integration refers to national-to- supranational sovereignty transfers either on the basis of court-related jurisprudence or on the basis of informal rule creation, which is to say that the decisions to transfer and design sovereignty on the supranational level either flow from interpretative rulings of the ECJ or are encapsulated in informal bargains among organizational actors that lack both a legal basis and a third-party external enforcer. The primary source of interregnum integration is not the Member States, but rather the Council's supranational competitors (particularly the Parliament). Now we can turn to the paper's theoretical framework. Whereas RCI treats institutions as variables that intervene between actors' preferences and outcomes—institutions are thin— sociological institutionalism (SI) and some HI work depict institutions as independent variables which do not only constrain options and structure choice situations, they themselves constitute actors' preferences—institutions are thick. Thus far, institutionalist theoretical approaches have primarily worked with one of two conceptions of institutions: either as rules constraining behavior (RCI and HI) or as norms and/or culture shaping as well as altering actor preferences (SI and some HI). To explain processes of institutional change, however, it may be essential to combine at least two of these approaches, as the possibility of institutional change may not only be hindered by prevailing resource distributions among actors and formal rules, but also by transaction costs and increasing returns—and perhaps even by prevailing shared expectations (norms) about the desirability of particular institutions which are grounded in ideology or political culture. It would appear worthwhile to combine approaches by specifically proffering a theoretical fusion of RCI and HI. The payoff from such a theoretical move can be cashed in via compensating for the former's deficiencies related to persistence and the latter's deficiencies related to change. The theoretical framework of this paper is grounded in a hybrid of RCI and HI approaches, viz. a rational choice historical institutionalist theory (RCHI) applied to a unit of analysis comprising the EU's inter-organizational interaction. Prior to elucidating hypotheses, it is necessary to anchor them in a theory grounded broadly in the strategic choice approach. In addition to the unitary actor assumption, RCHI first and foremost is methodologically individualist in that it posits that actors perceive their interests, rank them in terms of preferences, and maximize their utility by choosing the option they believe to be the most efficient means to their desired end. Nonetheless, this hybrid theory allows for rationality to be bounded, information to be incomplete, and actor beliefs not to be infallibly rational. This amounts to an overall assumption of weak rationality; thus, the theory postulates that actors merely behave as if they were rational. The hybrid nature of this RCHI theory becomes clear as institutions are introduced into the mix. Akin to Levi and picking up on Pierson's pioneering work, this theory assumes that actors are inveterate designers of institutions, which have the effect of constraining their subsequent choices. It further assumes that actors making decisions may have divergent interests from those affected by their decisions, and additionally that power is unequally distributed among the designers of institutions and among those affected by them. In other words, actors' choices and subsequent behavior are path dependent. The behavioral paths that actors travel along – the better metaphor may be channels – are demarcated by the very status quo institutions they created; however, due to the accrual of increasing returns these institutions tend to persist. For once established, other arrangements ranging from political deals to newer institutions become contingent on the status quo institutions, thereby adding to the costs of altering them. Thus, contrary to RCI postulates, in their persistence institutions continue to channel actors' behavior: institutions are not especially thin. Nonetheless, although increasing returns raise the costs of altering institutions even when it may otherwise be rational to do so, change is possible—even probable. Thus, RCHI theory also posits that actors will change the institutions constraining their decisions when the benefits from utility gains to be made begin to outweigh the accumulated costs (included those that will have accrued from increasing returns). In other words, at some threshold point that incorporates the build-up of increasing returns, the costs of change will no longer be restrictive. At this point, ceteris paribus, actors will alter the institutional rules of the game. Up to this point an implicit assumption of comparative statics has been made. However, it is important to relax this assumption and incorporate strategic interaction into the theoretical framework. A given political actor does not exist in a vacuum; rather, it must interact with other actors, each of whom has its own set of interests and preferences. Also behaving as if they are rational, they pursue their own strategies. Because of this, the success of any actor's individual strategy is contingent up on the strategies of other actors; as such, in formulating one's strategy, anticipated reaction is necessary – for the other actors as well. Unless actors' preferences are similar, their strategies will clash and necessarily introduce the necessity of bridging their differences, with the result ranging along a continuum between conflict and cooperation. As such, actors will change the institutions constraining their decisions when the benefits from utility gains to be made begin to outweigh the costs accrued from increasing returns, contingent upon the preferences and strategies of other actors with whom they are interdependent. Moreover, all actors are not created equal. This may not be problematic if there is a majority party in a legislature that can easily dispense with opposition once the benefits of altering the rules outweigh the transaction costs. However, in further relaxing the comparative statics assumption, even weak actors can cause problems for powerful actors over time. With a temporal assumption operating, actor strategies will tend to militate in favor of tit-for-tat rather than defection in a prisoner's dilemma. As such, the likelihood of bargaining thereby increases, for weaker actors may have leverage based on their ability to obstruct if not compel; powerful actors may therefore have incentives to bargain in order to mitigate the obstructionist motivations of weaker opponents. Under this set of RCHI assumptions, the threshold point for institutional change also depends on strategic interaction, which may result in a lowering of this point below where it would have been based on transaction and other costs alone. Thus, repeated interaction and multiple plays of the game may (or may not) decrease the stickiness of institutions, for there is variability not only among increasing returns but also – and most importantly – the vicissitudes of bargaining among multiple actors. It is the not entirely predictable outcome of bargaining – based on the incomplete information assumption – that partially eliminates and partially "resurrects" the multiple equilibrium problem. Institutional equilibria are thus likely to be at least somewhat persistent, but probably not ineluctably so. As institutions are assumed to be neither too thick nor too thin in this RCHI theory, it compensates equally for RCI's putative inability to theorize persistence and for HI's putative inability to theorize change. Compensating for their deficiencies also necessitates greater theoretical precision than is the norm in standard renditions of both RCI and HI. Indeed, it is incumbent on institutionalist scholarship to indicate the conditions under which change in a given scenario is expected, thus enabling it to elucidate how change is likely to occur in addition to why. In this way, a causal story can move from being an approach to an actual theory, which involves generating specific hypotheses that will specify the probabilistic conditions for change – and testing them. Not only are sophisticated versions of HI quite compatible with RCI, but furthermore for them to gain sufficient causal leverage they need to move beyond the mere metaphor of history. In this manner RCHI may help to explain the variance of institutional change in the EU, which is potentially consequential for an array of policy and political outcomes. Concerning the hypotheses, in taking into account dependent variables of both institutional design/creation and institutional change/adjustment, to a certain extent their primary purpose is to provide a general theoretical framing. That is to say that additional independent variables may be needed to explain specific outcomes of both types, leading to other auxiliary hypotheses beyond those presented below. The broader hypotheses set out here are aimed at putting into a place a causal framework specific enough to ground any ensuing empirical work in a particular theoretical approach qua theory, while being flexible enough to allow for necessary causal idiosyncrasies in a variety of empirical areas. Whereas the earlier propositions stemmed from existing approaches in the literature, herein lie the RCHI hypotheses concerning formal and informal spheres of EU policy-making. Hypothesis 1: If changes in the formal rules are problematic in practical terms, actors may become motivated to create informal rules in order to compensate for deficiencies. Actors may see themselves compelled to opt for the creation of informal institutions, as it is difficult for actors to anticipate all possible consequences of a formal institutional or "contractual" arrangement (see, for example, Pollack, 2003 and Abbott and Snidal, 2000). Informal rules in this regard can function either to fill in obvious gaps in the Treaty that prevent efficient policy-making or to solve minor problems in the formal rules – sort of to iron out the wrinkles. The dynamics surrounding the creation of this type of informal rules are relatively consensual and thereby cooperative; as such, the outcome is fairly predictable. Such rules violate neither the letter nor the spirit of the Treaty. Hypothesis 2: If changes in the formal rules are determined to be unsatisfactory in political preference terms, aggrieved actors may become motivated to create informal rules. In contrast, dynamics surrounding rules of this type are overtly political and thereby contentious. Thus, the outcome varies because influence attempts by the Three may succeed or fail, due to specific factors such as preference disparities, power disparities, or differences in actors' time horizons. Hix (2002), Farrell and Héritier (2003) as well as Lindner and Rittberger (2003) have demonstrated, for instance, that differences in time horizons between the Member States in the Council and the European Parliament prompted the latter to adopt a confrontational strategy in both legislative and budgetary policy-making with the ultimate goal to challenge the Council's formal rule interpretation of certain legislative und budgetary policy-making procedures. Given Member States' short-term policy orientation vis-à-vis Parliament's long-term orientation towards challenging the distribution of power among the EU's organizational actors, Parliament was able to alter the way legislative and budgetary policy-making procedures were effectively applied by having an informal institution supersede a formal, Treaty-based one. In the context of this special issue, auxiliary hypotheses may be useful in that rule creation attempts may be unilateral and thus worked out in practice (e.g. when the Parliament uses its internal Rules of Procedure as a battering ram against the Council) or the Three may engage in direct negotiations in order to deal with rule creation (e.g. in tri-lateral informal accords). Hypothesis 3: If informal rules that gain credence over time and are deemed satisfactory (particularly from the Council's perspective), Member State negotiators may become motivated to formalize them via their inclusion in amending treaties. In instances such as this, informal rules are "swept up" into the formal sphere and reincarnated as fully-fledged legal rules that are enshrined in the Treaty. This is not the case for all informal rules; however, it does intermittently occur primarily because a broad consensus as to the workability and acceptability of certain informal rules is achieved. Moreover, Member States may wish to sort of update them and/or infuse them with full democratic legitimacy. Thus, in terms of specific conditions for formalization of informal institutions, we expect this to occur 1) when the median voter Member State helps form a dominant actor coalition in the Council for amending the Treaty in such a fashion (i.e. precisely when this and other Member States determine that informal institution—or set of them—is workable and not too anemic to it long- term interests), and 2) when the Parliament does not successfully oppose a particular instance of sweeping up via an issue linkage strategy (paradoxically, on occasion the Parliament wishes an informal accord to remain informal—e.g. the budgetary accords, for flexibility reasons). Hypothesis 4: If informal rules gain credence over time and a consensus as to their satisfactory nature as informal entities is achieved, Member States and other actors may become motivated not to formalize them. The EU's organizational actors responsible for informal rule creation may wish to retain a degree of flexibility in the acquis, specifically in terms of facing fewer hurdles to altering informal rules in the future. By their very nature, informal rules are far easier to alter than formal rules; all that may be required is a so-called "gentlemen's agreement." Thus, whether by full consensus or not organizational actors may seek to maintain certain rules in the informal sphere where change is much less prohibitive. The legalization literature emphasizes that negotiating formal institutional agreements among a group of heterogeneous actors may be a very costly process given, for example, the potentially high switching costs from an informal to a formal institutional arrangement. Maintaining a degree of flexibility – provided for by informal arrangements – can be particularly important "when uncertainty or one sticky problem threatens to upset a larger 'package deal'." (Abbott and Snidal, 2000: 445) Hypothesis 5: If Member State principals delegate authority to their own representatives at the supranational level (i.e. the Council's Secretariat and Working Groups), these representatives may create internal rules that – for efficiency and other motivations – may diverge from the principals' intentions. This is an obvious reference to the Council, and the idea here is that there is a distinct possibility that even in policy areas where competence is retained by the Council, this collective actor's internal actors on one of three levels – Working Groups, Coreper I or II, or specific councils like Foreign Affairs – may create new informal rules that militate in favor of small transfers of sovereignty. For example, rules may be creating that make compromise easier to achieve, even in policy areas where the Treaty calls for unanimity in the Council. Motivations for this eventuality may comprise the necessity of efficiency in decision-making, responses to norms militating in favor of consensus, or represent unintended consequences of other decisions. Hypothesis 6: If Member State principals delegate authority for preparatory informal rule creation to specialized agents, they may not be able to control the precise nature of the outcome. Due to sunk costs and other causal factors Member States may be committed up front to the outcomes from specialized agent activities. For example, the Committee of Governors proved to be a collective agent that shirked to a fairly significant degree and created a European Central Bank (ECB) edifice that amounted to an offer that the Member States, for various reasons, "couldn't refuse." Hypothesis 7: If the European Court of Justice (ECJ) creates new integrative rules, then Member State principals may not be willing to pay the costs of "overruling" them via new legislation even when they prefer to do so. If the ECJ issues rulings in cases brought by one of the Three against another, new rules regarding inter-organizational relations in its ruling decisions are often integrative, e.g. those that established direct effect and supremacy. Where these rules run counter to Member State preferences, instead of "overruling" the ECJ via the creation of new legislation – even when they prefer to do so – the Council may simply adjust its behavior to accommodate the new rules. Although technically speaking these rules are formal, having been created by the ECJ itself, they nonetheless possess an informal quality in that they alter the acquis akin to the way in which informal accords do so. In other words, these rules are more similar to informal rules in the way in which they "adjust" the acquis, as opposed to formal rules stemming from primary or secondary sources that possess the standard fully-fledged legal quality in obliging all actors to act in accordance with them. Quasi-informal rules, if you like, are the subset of technically formal rules created by the Court that involve changes marginal enough that they do not kick up a tempest in the Member State teapot, yet in and of themselves comprise adjustments to the acquis that involve small-scale transfers of sovereignty. More often than not, Member States have not bothered to re-legislate, but have instead simply adjusted their behavior to them moving forward. Internal Informal Dynamics and a Foreign Policy Czar If the EU's Constitutional draft treaty were ratified by all Member States sometime in the next several years, the union would have its first Foreign Affairs Minister. Up until that time, if and when it occurs, there is at present a proto minister of this very type: the HR of the EU's CFSP, a.k.a. Europe's foreign policy czar. The powers of this position stem from the Amsterdam Treaty, whose provisions are fairly vague as to how the office holder is to behave and within which parameters; hence, at least on paper, the HR is apparently intended to be more a bureaucratic administrator than political initiator or wielder of significant powers in the sphere of foreign policy. As such, if the HR is to be effective at all s/he needs practically the full backing of the Council's Foreign Affairs Council. Even then s/he will be limited by the Council's modicum of resources compared to the average Member State's foreign affairs ministry. This empirical section will technically be testing all seven RCHI hypotheses, the seemingly most pertinent of them being Hypotheses 1 – 4: the Council and the Parliament may or may not create informal rules for practical purposes to fill in gaps in the Treaty; they may or may not be dissatisfied with the status quo allocation of power/authority and seek to create new informal rules; and Member States may or may not seek to formalize extent informal rules. An ex ante prediction, based on past activities in the EU's informal sphere, is that the first three hypotheses will find supporting evidence in this section's empirical material. If anything was clear at the outset of the HR's creation, it was that the Parliament would seek to establish a relationship with the new HR; true to form, the Parliament—as the prime mover behind the EU's informal inter-organizational dynamics—has sought to push the envelope somewhat, i.e. seek commitments from actual officials in office that go a bit beyond what is prescribed by the Treaty's formal rules. As the first HR, Javier Solana has been at pains to resist the advances of the Parliament. Naturally, certain gaps in the Treaty's provisions would have to be filled in creatively by the EU's organizational actors on the ground; indeed, the EU's early creation of informal institutions originated in this fashion. However, in this case not unlike others, the strategic interaction of the Parliament and Council has resulted in the creation of new institutions that go slightly beyond the letter and spirit of the treaty. Formally, the only relationship between the Council's HR and the Parliament stipulated by Amsterdam is that the HR represents the Council and the EU Presidency to the Parliament. Certainly one would expect that a relationship in practice would involve the need for a few more customs, if not informal rules—simply to make the formal procedure not only work on the ground, but also be consistent with the spirit of the Treaty. As the Council is the far more powerful actor, one would also expect the Parliament to achieve little by any attempt to expand its array of formal powers via informal inter-organizational dynamics. Yet, over the course of the first five years of the HR's existence, the Parliament has made, if not quite the most out of the opportunity for informal dynamics—left open by the Treaty's failure to spell out which specific tasks the HR would perform—then certainly something, for it has moderately expanded its powers vis-à-vis the Council compared to the previous status quo (in the foreign policy area). Prior to the creation of the HR, the Parliament has long been involved with CFSP in two traditional respects. First, the Parliament must give its formal assent to any international agreements the EU makes with third parties. This provides the Parliament with some useful strategic leverage, depending on the timing of various external agreement ratifications. Second, because of its longstanding powers related to final adoption of the yearly EU budget, all financing for CFSP actions must be approved by the Parliament in what amounts to a direct veto power. It is due to its traditional parliamentary budget powers that the Parliament has managed to leverage any notable influence over matters outside the EU's first pillar. Thus, the small yearly CFSP budget of some 60 million euros bears the Parliament's stamp. However, based on this formal power the Parliament has managed to leverage some additional informal power (over the course of the 1990s, when CFSP was in its major evolution). As is the norm with foreign policy, unexpected events or crises occur with some frequency and may require financing beyond the yearly allocation ceiling. While military actions require a special financing arrangement, any supplemental budget resolutions for non- military CFSP actions would logically necessitate the Parliament's involvement—indeed, the Parliament has insisted on such. These resolutions in fact amount to reallocations from the EU budget for External Action, the EU budget line for foreign aid. External Action funds dwarf those allocated for CFSP—at the level of 5 billion euros—for they comprise humanitarian aid, aid for LDCs in Latin America and Asia, and substantial aid for Mediterranean, Middle Eastern, Balkan, and former Soviet states all. With the Parliament capable of being obstructionist at the time of external crises, the Council was pressed into ceding a pair of indirect powers to the Parliament in the form a 1999 informal accord—officially an Inter-institutional Agreement (IIA) in EU parlance—comprised of a comprehensive update of earlier informal accords in the budgetary sphere (mostly unrelated to CFSP), as well as new informal CFSP institutions granting the Parliament a newfound ability firstly to be consulted yearly on preparation of the Council's primary CFSP policy document ("including the financial implications for the general budget of the European Communities") and secondly a commitment from the Council Presidency to "regularly inform the European Parliament about the development and implementation of CFSP actions." Thus, via informal inter-organizational dynamics the Parliament was strategically able to forge additional authority beyond the formal authority it already possessed in the budgetary sphere—indeed, beyond the other formal CFSP powers it also already possessed. Lacking the direct power to compel the Council to do something it otherwise would not do aside from budgetary matters since the EU's early days, the Parliament has nonetheless been afforded some formal (indirect) powers over time—this despite its lack of any major Treaty- prescribed role in the EU's second pillar. These involve indirect powers that might better be described as the Parliament's abilities to make its views heard and to hold the Council accountable for its foreign policy actions. The 1991 Maastricht Treaty prescribes a role for the Parliament such that the Council shall keep it informed of its foreign policy actions, the explanations for them, and significant developments over time; this amounts to an indirect power. The Parliament was granted an additional formal power in terms of its ability to make recommendations to the Council and to ask it substantive questions (which occur in sessions of its Committee of Foreign Affairs). Thus, in the 1999 IIA the Parliament informally achieved new institutions—beyond its small array of formal CFSP powers—which grant the Parliament consultation on the critical CFSP guiding policy document, influence over emergency CFSP funding initiatives, and language reiterating the Parliament's right to hold the Council accountable not only on the formulation of the EU's foreign policy, but also its implementation. With the advent of the HR, the Parliament has sought an additional topping up of its CFSP powers; not surprisingly, it has attempted to achieve such an augmentation in the informal sphere. However, so as not to miscast the Parliament as an over-zealous power-hungry organizational actor with some sort of chip on its shoulder, as a democratically elected legislative body the Parliament has long sought to hold unelected EU officials generally accountable—a principle certainly applicable to the HR and future EU minister of foreign affairs. To most observers it was clear that HR-Parliament relations would largely have to be worked out in practice. But the Parliament's goals for holding the HR accountable were considerable, moving beyond a baseline desire to be kept adequately informed of the HR's plans and activities. In their fullest form the be-all-end-all goal was to subject the HR to the same scrutiny Parliament gives to the Commission's individual commissioner designates (powers the Parliament first acquired in the informal sphere, prior to their being formally swept up in the Amsterdam Treaty), including the power to vote down the individual appointed (after a full-scale debate over the individual's fitness for office, with the individual present). The Parliament wanted commitments for the HR to meet regularly with Parliament, take regular questions from it in committee, be consulted on policy formation, and appear before it when demanded; in addition, Parliament wanted the power to sanction the HR. In actuality, at least at the six-year stage of the HR's existence, most of this wish list has yet to come to pass—a telling indicator as to which of the organizational actors, Council and Parliament, holds the most power cards. In fact, pleased that the Council chose a heavyweight politician type like Solana, the Parliament's offer to formally endorse Solana's appointment mid- 1999 was rejected (in light of the ratchet effect, the Council did not wish to set a precedent). Yet, the Council has acquiesced in a couple of instances to the Parliament's desire for additional informal institutions to its liking. The Parliament communicated a desire to have the HR appear before it quarterly; in fact, Solana has been willing not only to accede to this, but also to appear more often than requested. Solana has further acquiesced to the request of keeping the Parliament "fully informed," which may seem fairly insignificant given the Parliament's already existing formal authority to be kept informed. Where more progress seems to have been made is in the area of so-called informal contacts. Solana has actively courted Parliament by holding somewhat frequent ad-hoc meetings with individual MEPs, from the President and leaders of political groups (i.e. cross-national political party alliances) to key members of the Foreign Affairs Committee and even individual MEPs. Difficult to discern, however, is the degree to which these ad-hoc meetings occur according to any regular pattern—so as to qualify as newly created institutions—and whether MEPs are able to exert any measurable influence over the HR or CFSP. One might argue that this bevy of non-mandated meetings is precisely how Solana and the Council desire to have the HR-Parliament relationship organized, the presumed advantage being that the HR does not make any commitments that set precedents for either the Council or future holders of the position to abide by. Indeed, one might argue—as certain MEPs have—that this gives the Parliament overall less leverage than it otherwise might have. On the other hand, if the Council cannot be pressured or cajoled in to giving the Parliament more of what it wants in clear rule-based form, formal or informal, then it very way may be exercising greater influence over the HR and CFSP than it otherwise would have. For the Council has an interest in keeping the Parliament placated, particularly because of its historical tendency to take strong, public, and often highly controversial positions on external issues; clearly the HR's efficacy would be undermined if the Parliament were to prevent the EU from speaking with a unified voice by taking its disgruntlements or differing views public. Beyond this, MEPs have achieved access to more sensitive information through ad-hoc meetings with the HR, and these meetings offer them are more open, frank give-and-take with the HR than the meetings in committee or plenary. However, aside from achieving trust and a general commitment to cooperation on key foreign policy issues, there is scant evidence that CFSP actions have discernibly changed due to alleged Parliament influence. The Parliament seems unlikely to issue a no-confidence resolution for the HR's conduct for the foreseeable future, as such would undermine its efforts to bring CFSP fully into the EU's first pillar (formally the Parliament lacks this power, but informally there is wide EU precedent for actions of this nature to prevent either the Council or Commission to stay the course, either in policy or individual terms). Yet, the Parliament did lobby successfully for the Member States to turn the HR into the EU foreign minister, pending the Constitutional Treaty's ratification (which the Parliament is likely to have an easier time holding accountable). Still, the norm tends toward the Parliament being informed after CFSP actions have been initiated and the HR setting the agenda of his meetings with Parliament. In terms of the propositions of RCHI theory, which seeks to account for institutional and power allocation changes in the context of the EU, several hypotheses appear to be partially or wholly confirmed. While this section's evidence appears to easily falsify Hypotheses 4 - 7, conformational empirical material for Hypotheses 1 - 3 is in evidence. Hypothesis 1 holds that the Three may create new informal rules in order to fill in gaps in the Treaty for purely practical purposes. Indeed, due to the highly vague nature of the HR's position and role as set out in the Amsterdam Treaty, relations between the HR and the Parliament had to be worked out in practice—the behavioral patterns of which have taken the form of informal institutions. RCHI's Hypothesis 2 also appears to be confirmed by the evidence. The Parliament was dissatisfied with the status quo allocation of power/authority surrounding the HR's position and role; thus, it sought to create new informal rules to alter the status quo. A stronger form of this hypothesis, viz. that weaker actors would succeed in such an effort, would have been merely partially confirmed and partially falsified, for based on the evidence it is a mixed case. Finally, with regard to Hypothesis 3, the evidence partially confirms and partially falsifies the proposition that Member States will seek to formalize extent informal rules. Turning to the evidence, the formal rules about Parliament's limited role in CFSP confirm that Member States swept up previously existing informal rules that involved the Council's commitment to consult and keep the Parliament informed of CFSP activity. On the other hand, some of the contacts between Solana (or his staff) and MEPs have not even been institutionalized as of yet; moreover, the informal institutions stipulating how often the HR meets with Parliament and in what context, as well as the informal budgetary accord and its rules about the Parliament's influence on CFSP budgetary re-allocations, have not been formalized by the Member States. Conclusion The empirics of this case shed light on how informal inter-organizational dynamics continue to evolve inside the EU and add institutional rules to the acquis. While a new research area is beginning to be tapped into by scholars—viz. that involving the influence of informal institutions that have a source external to the EU—CFSP is but one of the EU's internal areas that continues to feature the creation of informal institutions, with an impact not only on policy outcomes but also the outcomes of the EU's incessant competition among the Three to augment each organizational actor's political power. This paper has attempted to apply RCHI theory to developments in the relationship between the Council and Parliament regarding the activities of the EU's new HR, the point person for CFSP until the EU creates a full-fledged supranational foreign minister. Three of RCHI's key hypotheses were confirmed, therein leading to a preliminary conclusion that consequential informal inter-organizational dynamics—a subset of informal governance—have occurred in the past several years between the Council and Parliament in the area of CFSP. Thus, even while the EU has acted in the formal sphere of European integration to transform the Treaty into an official EU Constitution, the channeling of political actors' behavior in the EU via dynamics in the informal sphere continues apace. Moreover, it is apparent that informal governance in the EU is in evidence in two primary forms: precedent setting via the creation of new informal institutions and non-precedent setting via the making of consequential decisions by various actors. The former, known as informal inter-organizational dynamics, is evident in the multitude of informal accords created by one or more of the Three; whereas the latter, known as network-based governance, is evident in the multitude of policy networks in the EU that are responsible for different decisions at different times and places. Interesting avenues for further research involve ascertaining under what conditions network-based governance gets transformed into informal dynamics, under what conditions Member States choose to formalize extant informal institutions, and, as already mentioned, under what conditions informal institutions from an external source have an impact on the internal dynamics of the EU. More specifically, however, regarding the case study featured in this paper there remains additional empirical ground to cover, viz. mapping any institutions that may be getting created through any newly developed patterns involving the aforementioned informal meetings between the HR and individual MEPs. If these meetings are becoming regularized in any way, or any exchanges that regularly occur in this context, then—voila—we have some new informal institutions on our hands that will need to be catalogued, assessed, and subjected to RCHI's hypotheses. One conclusion, however, is clear beyond any reasonable doubt: the integration outcome in the EU, involving the sharing of power and transfer of sovereignty, cannot be fully explained by confining one's scholarly lens to history-making integration. Indeed, interregnum integration is in evidence, for the remaining variance of the integration outcome cannot be explained without acknowledging the informal inter-organizational dynamics that involve consequential rule changes in the interregnum between Member State treaty negotiations. Bibliography Abbott, Kenneth W. and Duncan Snidal (2000) 'Hard and Soft Law in International Governance', International Organization 54, 3: 421-456. Axelrod, Robert (1984) The Evolution of Cooperation, New York: Basic Books. Christiansen, Thomas, Andreas Follesdal, and Simona Piattoni (2003) 'Informal Governance in the EU: an Introduction,' in Christiansen and Piattoni (eds) Informal Governance in the European Union, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Crum, Ben (2005) 'Parliamentarization of the CFSP Through Informal Institution-making? The Fifth European Parliament and the EU High Representative,' mimeo. DiMaggio, Paul J. and Walter W. Powell (1991) 'The Iron Cage Revisited: Institutional Isomorphism and Collective Rationality in Organizational Fields', in Walter W. Powell and Paul J. DiMaggio (eds.) The New Institutionalism in Organizational Analysis, Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Eggertsson, Thrainn (1996) 'A Note On the Economics of Institutions', in Lee J. Alston, Thrainne Eggertsson, and Douglass C. North (eds.) Empirical Studies in Institutional Change, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 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This section draws liberally from Stacey and Rittberger (2003). See Eggertsson (1996: 70) and North (1990: 3). See North (1995: 18). Gourevitch (1999); Knight (1992). Stacey (2003). Christiansen, Follesdal, and Piattoni (2003: 6). Van Tatenhove and Mak (2005: 7). Pierre and Peters (2000): 1,7,22,23. See Farrell and Heritier (2003); Stacey (2003). Stacey and Rittberger (2003). DiMaggio and Powell (1991). This hybrid theoretical framework draws liberally from Stacey (2003, Ch. 3). See Lake and Powell (1990). Crudely stated, an approach constitutes a theoretical project comprising assumptions, whereas a theory constitutes a project comprising not only assumptions but also specific hypotheses. RCHI corresponds best to what Hall and Taylor (1996) labeled the calculus approach to historical institutionalism (in opposition to the cultural approach) which is methodological individualist and conceptualizes institutions as opportunity structures affecting the costs and benefits of alternative behavioral choices among which individuals choose. Levi (1990); Pierson (1996, 2000a, and 2000b). Axelrod (1984). Pollack (2003). The sources used for this empirical section are the EU's web site (www.europa.eu.int) and an assortment of Financial Times articles. But I would like to acknowledge some important work on the evolving relationship between the HR and the Parliament that is far more extensive than my own (interview-based), which I have just come into contact with and will offer myself and other scholars additional evidence beyond this and/or other more rudimentary papers. See Crum (2005). Official Journal of the European Communities C 172/01, 6/05/1999: 9. Incidentally, the Parliament also pressed the Council for a flexibility instrument for general emergency funding measures, which was created—entirely in the informal sphere—in the context of this 1999 informal accord. Discerning whether so-called informal contacts between the HR and individual MEPs amount to any significant outcomes is a matter for further research. 1