Budgetary Implications of Enlargement: Agriculture. CEPS Policy Brief No. 22, May 2002

Swinnen, Johan W. W. (2002) Budgetary Implications of Enlargement: Agriculture. CEPS Policy Brief No. 22, May 2002. [Policy Paper]

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Abstract

[Introduction]. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) accounts for 45% of the total EU budget. Will its extension to Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) break the EU budget? The 10 CEECs currently negotiating for membership would increase the number of farmers by 120% and would increase the area under cultivation by 42%. It is thus widely expected that enlargement will dramatically increase the cost of the CAP. Early studies of the cost of extending the CAP to the CEECs arrived at very large numbers. But most of these studies pre-dated the 1999 Berlin Council and the Agenda 2000 reforms agreed there. These early budgetary impact estimations are now considered inaccurate. The discussion here is based on a set of more recent studies, which have incorporated the actual Agenda 2000 reforms and adjusted expectations on the number of countries and timing of enlargement, and are considered to be more accurate in their predictions. More specifically, the studies are produced by DIW (Berlin/Göttingen), IBO/LEI (The Hague) and IAMO (Halle).

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