Troublesome guests Turkey’s plans regarding the Syrian refugee issue. OSW COMMENTARY NUMBER 310 | 09.10.2019

Chudziak, Mateusz and Marszewski, Mariusz (2019) Troublesome guests Turkey’s plans regarding the Syrian refugee issue. OSW COMMENTARY NUMBER 310 | 09.10.2019. [Policy Paper]

PDF - Published Version Download (387Kb)

Abstract

The presence of Syrian refugees is putting increasing strain on Turkey. Since the migration agreement was signed with the EU in March 2016, the number of refugees in Turkey has risen from more than 2.7 million to more than 3.6 million. The growing anti-Syrian sentiment among the public poses a threat to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). Faced with the prospect of a new wave of refugees from the Syrian province of Idlib, Ankara is determined and prepared to take radical measures to reduce the danger the migration issue presents for the government. The most important measure taken is the preparations being made to set up a buffer zone in northern Syria. This would serve as a location for returning at least a portion of the Syrians from Turkey, as well as a destination for potential new refugees from Idlib. This will be a difficult undertaking, even in view of the White House’s announcement of withdrawal of US troops from northern Syria. This makes it even more important for Ankara to seek political and financial support in the EU for its actions. If the West does not get on board for the buffer zone project or accept requests to revisit current cooperation with regard to migration, Turkey might resort to lapses in control of illegal people’s movement, or even stimulate it, which could open a new chapter in the migration crisis in Europe.

Actions (login required)